The Halo Effect, by Phil Rosenzweig
Systematically discrediting a whole genre of management advice books
Expert Political Judgment, by Philip E. Tetlock
Revealing why the best experts can't look into the future any better than you can.
Thinking in Time, by Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May
Applying the lessons of history is not as easy as it sounds.
Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We all allow ourselves to be deceived by chance. Nassim Taleb points out just where and how we get fooled.
Happy Accidents, by Morton A. Meyers, M.D.
Fundamental advances in scientific understanding drive medical progress, right? Not quite, as Dr. Meyers explains.